Welcome to the second edition of the Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report, where I take a look every Sunday morning at all things fantasy basketball. We’ll lead off with the big fantasy hoops headlines from the week. Lots of news and notes, some sell-highs and buy-lows, a potential trade I like, some stats that interest me, and some game picks for the week (previously mentioned as “decent” bets, though no evidence of this, haha. Entertainment purposes only). All stats are current prior to games on November 1st unless otherwise mentioned.
We have some huge surprises in the NBA to start the year. My Chicago Bulls are undefeated and shooting 40% from three-point range as a team. We appear to have some early tank candidates: New Orleans is already starting first-round pick Jeremiah Fears, Indiana is a one-man show run by Pascal Siakam, and dysfunctional rotations in Sacramento appeared to be taking a star-laden team down before their win in Mexico City. There are plenty of other things worth noting: let’s get to the column.
Total Team Games Next Week:
Four games: Boston, Brooklyn, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Washington
Three games: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, LA Lakers, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto, Utah
Two games: Just Charlotte. Maybe this will help LaMelo Ball long term.
The Preseason Top Ten vs. The Current Top Ten (using Yahoo’s 9-cat average rankings)
Every year, analysts and drafters mess up the pre-season draft rankings at least a little bit, myself included. This is why it’s okay to play hunches in drafts and take stands on players. We don’t have 100% certainty of anything before the year, just probability.
More importantly, right now we’re on a small sample size, and there are some shocking results. This happens because a) it’s just one game, b) coaches are trying out a lot of different stuff early in the season, and c) players are fresh right now and able to ball out a little more than they will in February.
There are small sample size heroes every single year in every fantasy sport, and right now, here’s a snapshot of who’s really balling out early this season.
Right where we drafted them (current rank):
Luka Doncic (2)
Nikola Jokic (3)
Tyrese Maxey (4)
Stephen Curry (8)
This has been a surprising year, speaking as a guy who handles statistics. A whopping seven of the top twelve players in NBA fantasy circles, including all of our vaunted top five, are mashing early.
What’s even more amazing is what it takes in the early going to get into this exclusive club. If stretched over a full season, Victor Wembanyama‘s 4.8 blocks per game would be the fifth-best mark in NBA history. Luka Doncic missed a couple of games, but the point guard is scoring over 40 points per game. Tyrese Maxey has absolutely blown up, leading the NBA in three-pointers and averaging 43 minutes per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is shooting a mind-boggling 69.5% from the floor. Steph Curry is a little off his early-season, chart-topping numbers. He’s still been effective and could be in for a massive season. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic have both settled into their likely season-long numbers already.
Kudos to the prognosticators for coming up with a solid list to start the year. However, these players busted out of the gate at full steam. Most of the numbers you see above are totally unsustainable even for these NBA players. Similarly, the next list is also likely not sustainable, and the star players on it will improve.
Missing In Action (preseason/current rank):
Cade Cunningham (6/105)
Anthony Edwards (7/73)
Anthony Davis (9/42)
Devin Booker (10/115)
Cade Cunningham is in a major shooting slump right now, hitting less than 40% of his shots early this season. However, that was always one of the risks of drafting him. If you’re punting FG% (a pre-season recommendation from me), Cade probably looks fine to you right now, though he’s not a top ten player even without that category yet.
Anthony Edwards missed a combined eight games in the last three seasons, and now he’s out for two weeks. This current injury surpasses his total missed games from last year. This is a tough pill to swallow, since many owners drafted Edwards specifically because of his durability. If you don’t count his three-minute effort against Indiana, Edwards has 35 points per game on over 50% shooting.
Anthony Davis is hurt, too, which, unlike Ant’s absence, cannot be surprising. Still, AD’s first four games were outstanding. His overall averages are skewed by a seven-minute game, also against Indiana. What’s in the water in Indy?
Despite his low ranking, most owners are not too disappointed in Devin Booker right now. Booker is averaging 30 points a game with good threes and assists. However, the Phoenix guard usually averages more steals, fewer turnovers, and a higher free-throw percentage. He will eventually even out those problem areas, at least somewhat. This is why small sample sizes rarely tell us the whole story.
Ultimate Early Draft Bargains (preseason/current rank):
Lauri Markkanen (54/5)
Austin Reaves (25/6)
Kawhi Leonard (44/10)
Bonus: Norman Powell (68/11) and Mikal Bridges (67/12)
If you’re an owner of any of these players, you’ve got that warm, fuzzy feeling that only comes with getting a guy who’s winning you games early, you might have otherwise lost. You defied all of the fantasy analysts and grabbed Lauri Markkanen early based on his Eurobasket performance? Bullseye. You listened to the analysts and snatched up Norman Powell? Easy money.
But it’s my duty to remind you that we’re five or six games into the NBA season. Even with Markkanen and Walker Kessler balling out and four out of five games being competitive, the Jazz are still 2-3 on the young season. Utah will remember at some point that if they finish outside the top eight, Oklahoma City gets their pick. (Even the Thunder may not be overjoyed about that: there are only so many players you can roster.)
I think I am willing to accept that I, like others, have underrated Markkanen, though not by nearly this much. However, he might not be particularly available for your fantasy playoffs. Similarly, Austin Reaves should perform well in fantasy all year, but not at this level. Kawhi Leonard is unlikely to play more than 50-55 games. My opinion: trade all of these players high, if possible.
As for Norman Powell, I think his numbers are mostly sustainable, other than his rebounds. I think this is true even after Tyler Herro returns from injury. Powell made a lot of pre-season “Do Draft Lists,” including mine. Similarly, if you had forgotten that Mikal Bridges was acquired by the Knicks for five first-round picks, Pepperidge Farm remembers. With the Knicks’ improved pace, I had him higher than consensus this year. They may choose to feature him more often this year, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns banged up. He will not finish this high, but do not be surprised to see him on the edge of the top fifty.
Early Season Surges That Might Continue All Year…
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
Evan Mobley is pacing towards career highs in multiple categories right now, and he’s scoring more often than he has in the past. He’s performing more playmaking duties this year and playing 34 minutes per game. Right now, he’d be higher in the rankings if he were shooting his usual 55% from the floor.
Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards
I’m not ready to declare Kyshawn George an NBA star yet. Alex Sarr is balling out, however. At 18/8/4 with a whopping 2 blocks a game on shocking 54% shooting, he’s at the ceiling of where we thought he could be this year. That said, being at the ceiling isn’t through the roof. Sarr could be this guy, or most of this guy. Happily hold.
Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies
Nobody expected Cedric Coward to come in and dominate this much right away, but maybe we should have. The Washington State product was a sharpshooter in college, so his high percentages and almost two treys a game are reasonable. Even his 90% free-throw percentage isn’t necessarily out of bounds: he shot 89.5% in his sophomore year. And his steals and blocks are consistent with what he did in college, too.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
This one is probably frustrating for Pacers fans and Bennedict Mathurin owners alike, because the high-scoring forward is currently injured. Mathurin had clearly stepped up into the giant void in Indiana, scoring over thirty points a game. I think they let him finish out the year as long as he gets healthy. The Pacers need to see what the fourth-year man is capable of when featured in a larger stretch of games.
…And Some That Might Be Over By December
RJ Barrett, Toronto Raptors
RJ Barrett has improved his shooting in Toronto over his early Knicks days, but not this much. Right now, he’s shooting 57% from the floor, 41% from three, and 81% from the line. He also has nine steals in six games. He’s a prime regression candidate.
Kelly Oubre, Jr, Philadelphia 76ers
Kelly Oubre is on fire from the floor right now in a whopping 39 minutes per game, none of which is sustainable. The 29-year-old has had a nice career, and he’ll have a role all year, but he’s never been this guy.
Jerami Grant, Portland Trail Blazers
Jerami Grant‘s averages right now are beginning to “trail” off. The veteran forward still has a 50% percentage from the floor and 41% from three for the year. Those have fallen to 35% and 31% over the last two games. As long as his most recent games aren’t a bellwether, you can hold onto him all year for points, steals, blocks, and treys, plus a big impact from the free-throw line.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Charlotte Hornets
Rookie center Ryan Kalkbrenner has either cracked the code on how to make all of his shots in the NBA, or his 90% field goal percentage is impossible. That said, even if he’s making 70% of his shots, he’ll be roster-worthy all year, especially if he can keep up his 1.0 steal-per-game average. He’s still likely to be a little inconsistent.
High End Notes
Alperen Sengun hasn’t been the 37/11/7 guy we saw in the opener, but he’s doing everything you’d expect from him. Hard to find a safer player. … I didn’t include Julius Randle on the “over by December” list above because of the Edwards injury. Nobody expects him to be a top-20 player with big percentages all season, but he’s balling out right now. … Walker Kessler looks like a really good High Score player so far. Averages in his three “on” games: 22 points, 11 boards, 3 blocks, a steal, four assists, and two treys. Averages in his three “off” games: 3.5 points, 11 boards, 1.5 assists, zero blocks, 4.5 turnovers. … VJ Edgecombe is the opposite of Kessler. He hasn’t had a single really bad game yet. Plus, they really are playing him 40 minutes a night right now. I’d say give the kid a break, but maybe they can’t. His numbers will probably fall off some when his minutes do. Maybe sell high. … Whatever formula Yahoo uses has Donovan Clingan as the #48 player by averages. Any fantasy owner out there actually feeling Clingan having a top 50 impact? I don’t, and I own him nearly everywhere.
Buy Lows
Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
Domantas Sabonis‘ shooting percentage is off right now, and he’s taking a back seat to some of the other playmakers on the Kings. He’s also a little banged up, dealing with a hamstring injury. However, they’re going to quickly figure out that this isn’t working. Right now, he’s returning 9th round value, and that doesn’t feel real. I don’t think the buy low window closed in Mexico City on Saturday, but it might be closing soon.
Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
Despite the tumult and the 0-5 start in New Orleans right now, Trey Murphy‘s reps have remained steady. His scoring and shooting are way down right now, but he’s still getting the same opportunities as last year. If Zion Williamson misses time, Murphy’s numbers will probably look a lot like last year’s.
Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg is out of the top 100 in most ranking systems at the moment. He has been getting 30+ minutes in just about every game and has done a little of everything thus far. Someone must be frustrated with Flagg at this point, who is shooting 41% from the floor. This isn’t surprising to me, but probably is to whoever drafted him in Round 4. I’m nervous they may shut him down late, but there’s no actual evidence for that.
CJ McCollum, Washington Wizards
CJ McCollum is off to an absolutely awful start for Washington. However, the veteran is going to get consistent minutes until he is bought out or traded. He should come cheap right now and should return top 100 value for the rest of the season.
One Trade I’d Like To See
Here’s a real-life trade I’d like to see, which would have significant fantasy impacts.
Detroit Pistons Acquire:
F Herbert Jones
G Jordan Poole
New Orleans Pelicans Acquire:
Why I Like This Trade: This deal should help both Poole’s value and Ivey’s. Ivey has not suited up this season and is up for an extension, and he’s asking for $30 million a year. The Pelicans can feature Ivey when healthy, more than he would be on the Pistons, and see how that goes. Poole should fit well as a shooter aside from Cade Cunningham and create cap space in two years. Harris can be ported from New Orleans for another asset later. The move should make the Pistons’ offense and defense better. I feel like Ausar Thompson, who is just a marginal fantasy player right now, could learn a ton from Herbert Jones.
Drops In The Bucket
I was right about Milwaukee’s point guard position last week, but wrong about the player. Ryan Rollins might have taken this one over. Rollins has been great, but I still think we’ll see a timeshare. … Joel Embiid has played in most games for Philly this year, and if you ignore his horrible first game back, he has been a valuable bench player for fantasy squads. I can’t help feeling like that’s where he maxes out, but he should be okay. … Rui Hachimura was someone I was in on this offseason, but he’s been rock solid for the Lakers. Good percentage fixer. … Dylan Harper has done enough to maintain his minutes after De’Aaron Fox returns, so don’t feel any pressure to drop him when that happens. … Speaking of rookies, Jeremiah Fears has now started three games for the Pelicans. He should be a reasonable source of points, steals, and assists. However, stay far away from Fears if your league counts FG%, and he’s not good from three-point range. … Now is probably a good time to pick up De’Andre Hunter. He’s getting tons of minutes in Cleveland, and he’s scoring in bunches.
Facts And Opinions
NBA’s top five in Pace Factor so far: Miami, Portland, Memphis, Washington, Dallas. Pace Factor tells us how many possessions teams get per game. These are usually good teams to start players against in DFS because of opportunities.
Strange brewings on True Shooting Percentage (TS%): Right now, the Charlotte Hornets are a shocking seventh in the league in TS%, and 6th in Pace Factor. Since they’re 2-3 this season, how bad is their defense? Not good: their Defensive Rating is 119.2, so they’re giving up almost 120 points per 100 possessions. The only other team with a similar profile is the 4-1 Houston Rockets.
Speaking of Defensive Rating: The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder is just 24th in TS%, but their defensive rating is five points better than everyone but the Wembanyama-led Spurs and the Miami Heat. There may be a lot more to the Heat than we think this year. Speaking of Wemby, his personal Defensive Rating is 95.1, showing how much of a one-man wrecking crew he is on that end.
A few picks for next week
So the best thing about my daily picks last week is that there were seven of them for seven days. Admittedly, I chose interesting games. A couple even finished close. So far, I’m 1-4, and as I write this, Golden State and Indiana are locked in a tight one. I picked Toronto over Memphis tomorrow, so I could get back to a respectable 3-4, but I haven’t brought out the party hats yet.
Here are a few more highly unreliable picks for next week, which I may stop doing if I’m this, um, consistent:
Monday: Brooklyn over Minnesota. The Timberwolves are struggling to find an offensive identity outside of Julius Randle, as mentioned above. Anthony Edwards is out. Brooklyn is definitely not good, but they can’t lose all 82. No one can say I’m taking the easy ones.
Wednesday: Lakers over Spurs. Luka vs. Wemby, I think, goes to the Lakers, who pound three pointers to avoid the paint and steal this one at home. Spurs are really good, though.
Friday: Milwaukee over Chicago. There are serious matchup problems for the Bulls against Milwaukee, especially with Giannis. Besides, nobody had the Bulls on a 72-10 season this year.
Signing Off
Thanks for reading, everyone. The Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report will be back again next Sunday morning, with news you can use.
